“A pact with the devil”, “taboo-breaking”, “the firewall has collapsed”, “where are the fire extinguishers?”. German newspapers have been full of metaphors about the crumbling of the “firewall”, a political strategy aimed at isolating the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). On 14 September 2023 in Thuringia, the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), with the support of the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), some independent Members of Parliament (MPs), and the AfD, pushed through a proposal to cut land purchase taxes against the will of the minority red-green government led by Premier Bodo Ramelow (Die Linke).

Ramelow accuses the CDU in Thuringia of making deals with the AfD, led by Björn Höcke. In the eastern German state, the AfD is classified as right-wing extremist and is under surveillance by the state security agency. Höcke himself has been accused of using a Nazi slogan in a speech in 2021.

After the vote, Ramelow told Deutschlandfunk radio it was the darkest day of his career. Members of other political parties also expressed their dismay. “Where is the great outrage within the CDU?”, asked socialist leader Saskia Esken in the Stuttgarter Zeitung. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, also of the SPD, told Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa) that the CDU was “continuing to tear down the firewall on the right”. The Greens also took a hard line. Secretary-General Emily Büning denounced the “increasing normalisation of the extreme right”, while MP Anton Hofreiter saw this as part of a deliberate and centrally directed strategy of the CDU. The CDU, however, claimed that it has not cooperated with the AfD.

Signs of a crumbling firewall have appeared before – even among the Greens. In January 2023 in Blieskastel (Saarland), for example, Green councillor Lisa Becker was able to stay in office also because she received an AfD vote. In November 2022, the Greens on the city council of Backnang (Baden-Württemberg) voted for an AfD motion to increase funding for the local theatre. The chair of the German Green Party, Ricarda Lang, was unequivocal: “This must not happen again. If you have a serious concern, you can submit a motion yourself.”

So why this sudden massive outcry? It goes back, in part, to statements made by CDU leader Friedrich Merz in the news magazine Der Spiegel in December 2021, when he was a candidate for the party’s presidency. “With me comes a firewall against the AfD,” he claimed. By using the word “firewall”, he wanted to draw a clear line. These statements are now coming back to haunt him.

Centrist parties are scratching their heads over how to stop this right-wing tide. One thing they seem to agree on is that migration is causing growing anxiety.

Another reason is that there is a lot of ambiguity about when the firewall is actually breached. Does an AfD vote on another party’s motion qualify as cooperation? Is endorsing an AfD proposal equal to legitimising the Far Right? Or does it take a coalition with the AfD to tear down the wall? Probably the biggest reason for all the fuss is the AfD’s rapid rise in the polls. The party is now leading in four of the five former East German states (Brandenburg, Thuringia, Saxony and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania), with figures hovering around 30 per cent. Nationally, the party is polling second with a record 22 per cent.

Centrist parties are scratching their heads over how to stop this right-wing tide. One thing they seem to agree on is that migration is causing growing anxiety among the population. This development seems to be the ideal breeding ground for the AfD. In recent days, the parties have been falling over each other to call for a tougher migration policy.

CDU’s Merz has called for swift deportations, citing the example of social-democratic Denmark. Stricter asylum policies allowed the Danish government to successfully contain the Far Right, Merz argued. He also advocates a cap of 200,000 migrants per year for Germany.

In the Bundestag, his party has proposed a “German immigration pact”. It includes border controls with the Czech Republic and Poland, the classification of Georgia and Moldova as safe countries of origin, and support for the creation of infrastructure at the EU’s external borders to register new arrivals. As the main opposition force and currently the largest party in the country (27 per cent according to the latest polls), the CDU calls on Chancellor Scholz to find solutions together. “And if you can’t find solutions with the Greens, throw them out. Then we will solve it together,” he said in Munich last weekend, ahead of a key election in Bavaria on 8 October.

In a similar vein, liberal FDP’s Secretary General Bijan Djir-Sarai said that “the Greens must sacrifice their blockades.” The FDP wants to significantly reduce immigration and expand the list of safe countries of origin to include Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia.

Chancellor Scholz repeats that immigration figures are “dramatic”. His party also wants to increase the number of safe countries of origin, and Interior Minister Faeser is considering stationary border controls in the short term. Their fellow party member Sigmar Gabriel calls for “very tough, pragmatic measures” to better protect the EU’s external borders: “If we don’t do this, we will see the return of the EU’s internal borders,” he stated.

With next year’s EU elections just around the corner, the question is to what extent the pull to the right will spread to the EU Parliament.

As for the Greens, Economy Minister Robert Habeck wants more financial support for municipalities and fewer bureaucratic barriers to entry. At the same time, he said, the Greens are ready for pragmatic solutions to reduce immigration already at the EU’s external borders. He also wants to speed up deportations through new agreements with countries of origin. “The Greens must also accept reality and solve concrete problems – even if this means making morally difficult decisions. We know that we have a responsibility for the cohesion of this country,” Habeck said.

Meanwhile, the AfD is wringing its hands. Björn Höcke said after the vote that he was happy that “the CDU had the courage to stand firm”. Right-wing leader Alice Weidel wrote on X, previously Twitter: “Merz’s firewall is history – and Thuringia is just the beginning.”

The rise of right-wing populism and the dilemma of how to react is not just a German issue. The Economist notes that hard-right parties now poll at around 20 per cent in 15 out of 27 EU member states. In some countries – such as Sweden, Finland, and Austria – they are or have been in government. Poland, Hungary, and Italy are ruled by right-wing populists. With next year’s EU elections just around the corner, the question is to what extent the pull to the right will spread to the EU Parliament.