Marcin Wrzos: Poland’s energy policy currently focuses on replacing coal with nuclear energy. To what extent does this strategy fit into EU decarbonisation plans?

Maciej Nowicki: The projections that inform Polish energy policy have recently been updated. The Ministry of Climate and Environment sent a draft to the Council of Ministers that breaks completely with the current strategy. However, at the moment we are speaking it has not been accepted by the government. As a ministerial project, it should be subject to extensive consultations, but these did not take place, and I don’t know how the legislative process will proceed. In the proposed form, the new strategy is surprisingly progressive compared to the current one, which is outdated and full of errors. It does not reflect the processes taking place in the world and in Poland. We need a very realistic strategy for the development of the energy system.

In what direction should the changes go?

The whole process started from the wrong side. What was needed is a strategy that looked at the financing necessary to modernise the whole energy system and precisely defined the role of nuclear before committing to it.

Instead, I see disturbing propaganda in Poland, which presents nuclear energy as a panacea for all our problems. This approach smothered the debate on the energy transition to the point that it practically didn’t happen. The government makes unilateral decisions without consulting the public or even thinking them through. It decided to build a nuclear power plant with a capacity of 3000 megawatts, then it said that capacity needed to be be doubled. Now there is talk of 9000 megawatts, and the search for the location of the power plant has begun.

Does this strategy makes sense from an economic point of view?

For the construction of its first nuclear power plant, The Polish government chose without a tender Westinghouse Electric Company, an American company which was in serious financial difficulties and close to bankruptcy. Nobody asks the key questions in such a situation. How much will it cost to build a nuclear power plant? How much will the power cost and where will the radioactive waste repository be located?

The choice of an American company makes sense only from a PR point of view. But the actions of the Polish government are extremely irresponsible, because nuclear is by far the most expensive of all energy sources in the investment phase. Initially, it was said that the first plant could cost about 100 billion złoty (ca. 22.5 billion euro), for a capacity of 6000 megawatts. Now it’s 200 billion…

Apart from its costs, does nuclear power make sense for Poland’s energy mix?

There’s a huge inconsistency in the actions of the current government. It wants to build a nuclear power plant on the Baltic Sea, and at the same time, it assures that it will favor the construction of wind farms on the Polish coast capable of producing up to 18 gigawatts of energy. In this way, Poland would obtain a gigantic surplus of energy in the north of the country, which it will not know what to do with. Only 20 per cent of energy is used in the northern part of Poland. For energy networks, such a large surplus can be a huge challenge. Nuclear reactors run around the clock and are not suitable for increasing production on windless days and reducing it when strong winds blow. It is unrealistic to assume that these two energy sources can complement each other.

Moreover, the transmission network is in a terrible condition, and is not being modernised. All decisions are currently made on an ad hoc basis. We cannot say which direction the energy sector will go, and the government is reluctant to develop a comprehensive modernisation plan along with a schedule.

Realistically, nuclear energy may fill a gap, but it certainly has no chance of solving the problems of the Polish energy system. Even if it could produce 9 gigawatts, it would cover only 20-25 per cent of the country’s energy needs. We must accept this fact and stop treating nuclear as a guarantee of energy security.

Before Law and Justice won the 2015 elections, the party was averse to nuclear energy. Prime Minister Beata Szydło said that she opposed the construction of a nuclear power plant. What allowed for such a far-reaching change to happen?

We live in unstable times and the claim that nuclear will ensure Poland’s energy security resonates with social fears. However, this will not happen for at least two reasons.

First, the war in Ukraine proves how wrong this claim is. Nuclear power plants, contrary to international law, have become targets for the Russian army. A prime example is the power plant in Zaporizhia, which the Russians disconnected from the Ukrainian power grid and now use it as a bogeyman, due to the enormity of the disaster that can be easily triggered.

Realistically, nuclear energy may fill a gap, but it certainly has no chance of solving the problems of the Polish energy system.

Second, nuclear fuel in Poland is entirely imported from abroad. Uranium is also not mined in the European Union. EU countries import 20 per cent of it from Russia and 20 per cent from Kazakhstan, which is under Moscow’s influence. The construction of new nuclear power plants may make the EU even more dependent on imports from the east. In this context, talking about energy security sounds like a grim joke.

How do Poles feel about nuclear energy?

In a survey by the Ministry of Climate and Environment from November 2022, it turned out that over 86 per cent of respondents support nuclear power plants in our country, and 10 per cent are of the opposite opinion. I don’t believe in the accuracy of this poll. Even the ubiquitous pro-nuclear propaganda could not change the Poles’ opinion on this matter in such a short time. Just a few years ago, the majority of society was against the construction of a nuclear power plant.

Can renewable sources produce enough energy for Poland’s needs?

Germany, which lies at the same latitude and has a similar climate, already generates 60 gigawatts of wind power and another 60 gigawatts of solar power – a huge proportion of Poland’s power needs. Of course, it is not enough to increase the production of energy from renewable sources; modernisation of the energy system is needed too. By 2030, large-scale storage facilities must be built to balance fluctuations in wind and solar energy production. At the moment, we have over 100 biogas plants in Poland compared to 1000 in Germany. Poland must use its full potential in this area. Biogas plants are an excellent solution because gas works best with renewables. In the transitional period until 2040, it might be possible to use coal gasification to quickly supplement the missing power in periods of shortage of renewable energy.

There are several options for energy storage. We need to move towards a hydrogen economy. Green hydrogen is the cleanest and most energy-intensive fuel. The technology has been known for a long time and is developing dynamically. We will be able to send hydrogen through pipelines, just like methane today.

How does energy policy fit into the Polish government’s overall actions?

The lack of democracy in Poland doesn’t only have to do with courts. It also affects how the state spends money. Polish society should be involved in the decision-making process. Local communities should consent to the construction of a nuclear power plant or a radioactive waste dump.

The location of the first nuclear power plant is highly controversial. The piece of the Polish coast that is currently being considered is beautiful and largely unaffected by human activity. Residents fear that the plant will mean the end of tourism, which constitutes the basis of their livelihood.

Discussions often include the argument that new jobs will appear along with the power plant. Yes, a huge number of workers will be needed over the course of several years of construction, but the power plant itself will be automated and only highly qualified staff will be able to count on work. The plant will be operated by several hundred people, most of whom will come from outside. Locals will get a devastated environment and no prospects for the future.

Is the will of citizens enough when there is no energy transition plan?

It is not enough. What is needed is, first, the political will – not for the purposes of the election campaign, but genuine conviction that renewables are the future of Poland, Europe and the world. Politicians need to know that changes are necessary due to the warming climate and depletion of fossil fuels. Poland is only a small piece of the world, but this does not absolve us from long-term thinking.

For renewables to develop, the entire political class must think this way, not just those in power. In the past, sudden changes in regulations discouraged investments in renewables. In 2016, the so-called “Distance Act” inhibited the fast development of wind energy by increasing the required distance of turbines from residential buildings. Similar shifts happened in solar energy regulations. To avoid this in the future, Poland should move away from a centralised system towards distributed energy.

Why is Poland so attached to such a centralised model?

This is due to the role of state-owned companies. They are of strategic importance for the Polish economy: they implement government projects and investments, and many politically appointed people can be placed in them – regardless of their competencies. Decentralised energy communities are extremely difficult to control for those in power.

Politicians need to know that changes are necessary due to the warming climate and depletion of fossil fuels.

Is the legacy of the anti-nuclear movement of the 1980s still visible in the current debate?

I had my share in the fact that the nuclear power plant in Żarnowiec was not built in the 1980s. It was Soviet technology, which was very dangerous as it didn’t have proper safeguards in case of system failure. At the moment, however, this is no longer talked about. There is no going back to Chernobyl – the debate is now dominated by economic arguments. Nuclear technologies have become safer, but much more expensive as well. In recent years, the prices of nuclear reactors have increased by 20 per cent and those of photovoltaics have fallen by 88 per cent over the same period. This shows us in which direction we should go.

There are arguments that nuclear energy is low emission and therefore it is worth it for climate protection. Even the environmental community in Poland is divided on this issue. Is nuclear energy good for the climate?

It is true that the operation of the reactors themselves is net zero. But it takes a huge amount of energy to enrich uranium. There’s also high-water consumption and the issue of storing nuclear waste. To have a complete picture, the entire energy generation process must be traced.

The money allocated to the development of nuclear energy in Poland could be spent on other purposes, including the development of renewables or the necessary renovation of the power grid. The first nuclear power plant in our country may be built in 15 years at the earliest. This is a key period for the decarbonisation of the economy, and the government spends huge sums on nuclear so that the current system can last at least a few more years. This leads to disaster. In 10 years, at least 15 gigawatts of coal-fired units will have to be shut down because they can no longer be used. How will we fill this gap – and at what cost? That is why an honest debate on the energy system in Poland is so important.

Money from the EU Emission Trading System (ETS) should be allocated to the energy transformation. In Poland, it is not clear how this money is spent. The actions of the government are extremely non-transparent. According to EU regulations, 50 per cent of the ETS trade should go to renewables and energy saving. I don’t think that’s happening. We should allocate 100 per cent of the funds obtained in this way for such purposes. Transmission networks should be modernised as well, as this is a necessary condition for the development of distributed energy based on renewables.

You were among the signatories of an open letter to the opposition parties on the energy transition. Does the possible change of power in Poland give you hope for change?

The letter was signed by five former ministers, 20 large NGOs and many scientists. Sadly, none of the political parties answered. Opposition parties are in favor of the development of renewables. If there is a change of government after the elections in October and a new coalition is formed, I am confident that a good, stable, and renewable energy-friendly law will start to take shape. While there is a proper consensus among the democratic opposition parties that renewables are to be the main source of energy, some groups also support nuclear. The leftist party Razem (Together) strongly supports nuclear, and there is also a faction in the centre-right Civic Platform that thinks in a similar fashion. Often parties do not have a clear position on this matter. At the moment, the government argues that nuclear is a cure-for-all. A new government that makes decisions based on hard data would guarantee the development of green energy.

This is not the case today. There are such bizarre situations where Law and Justice, out of concern for energy security, wants to build 79 small modular reactors, based on technology that does not exist yet. It is not yet known how much it will cost, how municipalities will deal with nuclear waste, and even when it can be put into production. Talking about distributed nuclear energy sounds good, but at the moment it is only a propaganda ploy to prevent the erosion of the centralized energy system in Poland.

Will energy be an important topic ahead of the October parliamentary elections?

The campaign will be dominated by social issues, inflation, and food and housing prices. High prices occupy the thoughts of Poles. The effects of changes in the energy system should be viewed in a perspective of several years, while election campaigns are based on simple and understandable slogans. The energy sector requires a deeper debate. Smaller forces such as the agrarian Polish People’s Party (PSL) can talk about renewables because photovoltaics and biogas plants are very important for its voters. However, energy won’t be an important topic in the campaign.